Rates Held, Rules Changed, and the Harvest Is Almost In
Posted on November 5, 2026 at 9:34 PM by Rudy Fors
Beyond the Balance Sheet – Inaugural Edition
· @Rudy Fors
Beyond the Balance Sheet — From the CEO's Desk
Rates Held, Rules Changed, and the Harvest Is Almost In
By Rudy Fors, President & CEO, Twin Cedars Bank · November 5, 2026
I've spent a lot of years on the other side of the desk from business owners, farmers, and families making big financial decisions. The pattern I see most often: people wait for the news to tell them what to do. The news rarely does. What matters is what a development means for your business, your operation, or your household, and what you do about it.
That's the purpose of this column. Every couple of weeks, I'll pick two or three things happening in the economy or in Washington and translate them into plain terms. Not predictions. Decisions.
Three things deserve your attention right now.
1. The Fed held rates. Two members wanted to raise them.
On October 28, the Federal Reserve left its benchmark rate at 3.75%–4.00%. That's the headline. The detail that matters is the vote: 10 to 2, and both dissenters wanted a quarter-point increase, not a cut. The Fed's last move, in September, was a hike.
I've had more than one conversation this fall with a business owner who wants to wait on a building or an equipment purchase until rates come down. I understand the instinct. But the people setting rates are debating whether to raise them, and the prime rate sits at 7.00%.
What this means for you: Run the numbers at today's rate, not the rate you're hoping for. If the project cash-flows now, with room to spare, it's a good project. If it only works at a rate the Fed hasn't delivered, that's not a plan. It's a bet.
Two practical steps: know your debt service coverage before you call your banker, and if you carry variable-rate debt, ask what a fixed-rate option costs you today. The answer may surprise you in either direction.
On the deposit side, this is a good environment for savers. If your operating cash has been sitting idle, it's worth a conversation.
2. Thinking about buying or selling a business? The SBA rules just changed.
Southern Iowa has a lot of good businesses owned by people in their 60s and 70s, and not enough buyers with the cash to pay for them. SBA 7(a) financing is how many of those deals get done. On October 1, the SBA put a new rulebook in place, SOP 50 10 8.1, and it's tighter on business acquisitions.
In plain terms, three things changed:
- The deal has to work on history, not projections. Cash-flow coverage is tested on what the business actually earned, not what the buyer hopes to earn.
- Larger deals need an outside look at the books. Purchases above $3 million now require an independent Quality of Earnings review. That's a cost and a timeline the buyer and seller both need to plan for.
- The buyer's down payment is scrutinized harder. At least 10% of the project still has to be equity, and the rules on where that equity can come from got stricter. A seller note can still count, but only if it's fully on standby for the life of the loan.
There's good news in the same package. Since July, a borrower can combine 7(a) and 504 financing for up to $10 million total, double the old cap. For a manufacturer or a growing operation buying a building and funding working capital, that's real room that didn't exist a year ago.
What this means for you: If you're a seller, get your financials cleaned up now, before a buyer's lender does it for you. A business with three years of clean, accountant-prepared statements and a believable owner-transition plan is worth more and closes faster. If you're a buyer, bring more equity than you think you need, and talk to a lender before you sign a letter of intent, not after. The structure of the deal matters as much as the price.
3. The harvest is nearly in. The 2027 conversation starts now.
As of November 1, Iowa farmers had 66% of the corn and 90% of the soybeans out of the field, according to the state crop report. Beans are right on the five-year average. Corn is 13 points behind, after a September that was one of the wettest on record. Five good days last week helped a lot, and the warm fall has kept the drying bill down.
The yield story will be told over the next few weeks. The financial story is already here. Input costs haven't come down much, commodity prices haven't gone up much, and a late corn harvest means some grain gets marketed later than planned.
What this means for you: Don't wait for the combine to be parked to look at the numbers. The producers I see handle tight years best are the ones who sit down in November, not March, with an honest projected cash flow for next year. Three questions worth answering before the holidays:
- What does my working capital look like after this crop is sold and this year's operating line is paid down?
- Which equipment decisions can wait a year, and which can't?
- Where do I want my operating line and term debt structured before I need them?
A 20-minute conversation with your banker in November can save a hard one in April.
A closing thought
None of the three items above is a crisis. A rate hold, a rule change, a late harvest. What they have in common is that each rewards the people who look at their own numbers early and punishes the ones who wait for the headlines to make the decision for them.
That's what community banking is for. We know the businesses on Main Street in Oskaloosa, the operations around Bussey and Lovilia, and the companies building in Des Moines, and we'd rather help you plan than help you recover. If something in this column raised a question about your business, your farm, or your family's finances, call us. The conversation is free.
Let's Grow Together.
Rudy Fors President & CEO, Twin Cedars Bank www.twincedars.bank
Sources: Federal Reserve FOMC statement, Oct. 28, 2026 · SBA Information Notice 5000-880695, SOP 50 10 8.1 · SBA news release, July 7, 2026 · Iowa Crop Progress and Condition Report, Nov. 2, 2026
This column is general information, not advice for any individual situation. Loans subject to credit approval. Twin Cedars Bank is a Member FDIC and Equal Housing Lender.
